India may outpace China by 2048

Published: September 17, 2012 6:00 am ET

Related to this story

Topics Public Policy

LONDON (Sept. 17, 8:35 a.m. ET) — India is likely to overtake China to become the world’s largest economy by 2048, according to a leading academic.

In the first of a series of lectures delivered in London last week Professor Douglas McWilliams, of Gresham College, said that China’s economy was already slowing and the country’s growth would decline to around 4 percent per year during the 2020s.

And while China would overtake the US as the world’s largest economy “by around 2023” forecasts from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) suggested that India’s economy will outpace China’s in less than four decades.

However McWilliams warned there was “obviously a wide margin of error” in such forecasts.

China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.4 percent this year, a figure regarded in some quarters as a ‘hard-landing’ after the country’s phenomenal performance in recent years.

In his lecture McWilliams said that the scale of the competitive challenge from Asia industrialization for Western economies was particularly great “because the pace of change in the emerging economies has been so rapid that attitudes have not had time to adjust to prosperity.”

“In the east they do not take prosperity for granted and continue to work hard, support businessmen and keep taxes down. The average Singaporean works 2,307 hours a year; the average Hong Konger works 2,287 hours.

“We in Britain work 1,625 hours. It’s as if the average Singaporean worked over four months more a year in effect than we do,” he said.

Highlighting a more relaxed tax regime in Asian economies, McWilliams said if western regimes did not adjust their policies to match those of the competitive economies in the east there was a risk that the rest of Europe, including countries who were outside the euro, like the United Kingdom,  “could slide in the same way that Greece now has into first stagnation and then economic collapse.”


Comments

India may outpace China by 2048

Published: September 17, 2012 6:00 am ET

Post Your Comments


Back to story


More stories

California lawmakers give final approval to plastic bag ban

August 30, 2014 6:00 am ET

Under the measure, single-use plastic bags will be barred from California retailers, including grocery stores, convenience stores and drug stores, as ...    More

Image

Poor plastic coating prompts cable recall

August 29, 2014 2:10 pm ET

Australia's competition regulator, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), has ordered a major recall of 2,485 miles of electrical ...    More

Image

EPA fines RI polymer company

August 29, 2014 1:20 pm ET

A Rhode Island polymer manufacturer has reached a $60,000 settlement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for violating federal clean...    More

California Assembly passes plastic bag ban

August 28, 2014 3:07 pm ET

In its second attempt of the week, the California Assembly approved a bill that would ban single-use plastic bags statewide, the first such ban in...    More

Image

DuPont fined for 2010 chemicals release

August 28, 2014 1:37 pm ET

DuPont Co. has been fined almost $1.3 million for the release of several chemicals — including plastics feedstock phosgene — at its plant ...    More

Market Reports

Thermoformed Packaging 2014 Market Review & Outlook North America

This in-depth report analyzes economic and market trends, legislative/regulatory activity impacting supply and demand, business opportunities and threats, materials pricing, manufacturing technology, as well as growth strategies being implemented by thermoformed packaging companies.

Learn more

Pipe, Profile & Tubing Extrusion in North America 2014

U.S. demand for extruded plastics is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2014, with PVC remaining the largest segment.

Plastic pipe will post the strongest gains through 2018, continuing to take market share from competing materials in a range of markets.

Our latest market report provides in-depth analysis of current trends and their financial impact on the pipe, profile and tubing extrusion industry in North America.

Learn more

2014 Injection Molding Industry Report

GROWTH, OPPORTUNITY IN SIGHT FOR INJECTION MOLDERS IN 2014

In the wake of the economic turbulence earlier in this decade, molders today find themselves in much better shape. Molders are gaining a competitive advantage by investing in people, equipment and seeking inroads into new markets on a global scale.

Growth in the injection molding industry is going to be driven by low financing costs and a continued move to reshore some business.

Learn more

Upcoming Plastics News Events

September 10, 2014 - September 12, 2014Plastics Caps & Closures 2014

January 14, 2015 - January 14, 2015Plastics in Automotive

February 4, 2015 - February 6, 2015Plastics News Executive Forum 2015

More Events