India may outpace China by 2048

Published: September 17, 2012 6:00 am ET

Related to this story

Topics Public Policy
Companies & Associations

LONDON (Sept. 17, 8:35 a.m. ET) — India is likely to overtake China to become the world’s largest economy by 2048, according to a leading academic.

In the first of a series of lectures delivered in London last week Professor Douglas McWilliams, of Gresham College, said that China’s economy was already slowing and the country’s growth would decline to around 4 percent per year during the 2020s.

And while China would overtake the US as the world’s largest economy “by around 2023” forecasts from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) suggested that India’s economy will outpace China’s in less than four decades.

However McWilliams warned there was “obviously a wide margin of error” in such forecasts.

China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.4 percent this year, a figure regarded in some quarters as a ‘hard-landing’ after the country’s phenomenal performance in recent years.

In his lecture McWilliams said that the scale of the competitive challenge from Asia industrialization for Western economies was particularly great “because the pace of change in the emerging economies has been so rapid that attitudes have not had time to adjust to prosperity.”

“In the east they do not take prosperity for granted and continue to work hard, support businessmen and keep taxes down. The average Singaporean works 2,307 hours a year; the average Hong Konger works 2,287 hours.

“We in Britain work 1,625 hours. It’s as if the average Singaporean worked over four months more a year in effect than we do,” he said.

Highlighting a more relaxed tax regime in Asian economies, McWilliams said if western regimes did not adjust their policies to match those of the competitive economies in the east there was a risk that the rest of Europe, including countries who were outside the euro, like the United Kingdom,  “could slide in the same way that Greece now has into first stagnation and then economic collapse.”


Comments

India may outpace China by 2048

Published: September 17, 2012 6:00 am ET

Post Your Comments


Back to story


More stories

Image

Getting a real feel for how 'vinyl saves lives'

March 27, 2015 6:00 am ET

While I'm certainly not shipping off to Africa anytime soon, I got a taste of what medical professionals go through in the fight against Ebola and...    More

Image

Johnson's political outlook shaped by a plastics business view

March 27, 2015 6:00 am ET

When Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) traded plastics for politics in 2010, he didn't leave his business sense behind. He carried the lessons of 30 years in ...    More

Image

Customs snafu snags Boy Machines

March 26, 2015 9:42 am ET

ORLANDO, FLA. — With apologies to poet Robert Burns, this year’s NPE in Orlando definitely proved that “sometimes the...    More

Image

NPE nudges attendees to recycle

March 24, 2015 1:47 pm ET

A public awareness campaign developed by Keep America Beautiful is receiving prominent display at NPE 2015 as part of the show's overall effort to...    More

Image

SPI launching recycling summit

March 23, 2015 5:10 pm ET

The Society of the Plastics Industry Inc. announced Monday at NPE 2015 that the plastics trade association will return to Orlando in 2016 for a brand ...    More

Market Reports

Flexible Packaging Trends in North America

North America represents about 30 percent of the global consumption of flexible packaging. Annual growth in this region is forecast at 4 percent during the next 5 years.

For more insight on growth opportunities, drivers of growth and the outlook for 2015, download this report.

Learn more

Plastics Recycling Trends in North America

This report is a review and analysis of the North American Plastics Recycling Industry, including key trends and statistics based on 2013 performance. We examine market environment factors, regulatory issues, industry challenges, key drivers and emerging trends in post-consumer and post-industrial recycling.

Learn more

Plastics in Mexico - State of the Industry Report

This report analyzes the $20 billion plastics industry in Mexico including sales of machinery & equipment, resins and finished products.

Our analysts provide insight on business trends, foreign investment, top end markets and plastics processing activity. The report also provides important data on exports, production, employment and value of plastics products manufactured.

Learn more

Upcoming Plastics News Events

June 2, 2015 - June 3, 2015Plastics Financial Summit - Chicago 2015

September 16, 2015 - September 18, 2015Plastics Caps & Closures - September 2015

More Events