As managing editor of Where exactly is the global economy right now? In a trough? Starting to recover? You know the joke: Ask a couple of economists, and you'll get a couple of opinions.
But here's a ray of sunshine: DuPont Co.'s Robert C. Fry Jr. highlights the state of the economic recovery in his newest business development report, released today. The news for manufacturers is especially postive.
"Evidence is growing," he wrote, "that the U.S. economy is at or near a business-cycle trough." But for manufacturing, the economy may be poised for a nice rebound.
"The schedule for U.S. motor vehicle production ... argues for a June trough, at least for industrial production. Vehicle production has been slashed this year to the lowest levels since 1958, as General Motors and Chrysler have shut down plants as part of their restructuring, but production is scheduled to surge in the third quarter. Production will still be far below pre-recession levels, but the jump in seasonally-adjusted motor vehicle production from June to July will be huge, and given the importance of this industry as a source of demand for other industries, total U.S. industrial production is likely to rebound as well."
Fry also notes that the recovery has already begun in some of the developing countries of Asia and in Brazil, and that it is especially strong in South Korea and Taiwan.
NPE attendees will remember that the 2000 show took place just as the U.S. manufacturing sector hit a peak. Will NPE2009 be remembered as the show that started a long, strong recovery? Let's hope so.