As epic snowstorms continue to slam southern, central China, many Chinese have been stranded on their way home for the Chinese New Year, which falls on Feburary 7 this year.
Officially, the national holiday is seven days long, but most factories shut their doors for up to a month around the holiday, since it's the only time during the year when millions of migrant workers -- many traveling several days by train and bus -- can visit their families.And because many plants are already closing for the holiday, I don't think the brutal blizzards should have too much direct impact on the plastics industry. A report from a Chinese plastics Web site confirmed my theory, sort of. In its forecast (viewable in Chinese at info.plas.hc360.com) on polyethylene pricing, the author says:Almost all of the downstream processors have stopped production. Some trading businesses also have completed their annual plans and started vacation.
Although paralyzed transportation has caused a materials price hike on the seller's end, the report said, demand is staying low with little transaction being observed.
In the longer term, however, the industry will see impact. The Chinese government reported a direct loss of 22 billion yuan (more than US$3 billion) as of Jan 29. If the storms trigger higher inflation or a slowdown of the economy, the plastics industry will hurt as well. On a bright note, suppliers of plastic agricultural film and construction material might see a rise in demand.