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Buy local or imports in a downturn?

It remains a mystery whether Americans will buy more made-in-USA products during the economic slowdown or recession to protect the domestic economy, or buy more imported, cheaper items, to hold on to their wallets.

I asked exhibitors and attendees at the three-day International Home and Housewares Show in Chicago what they think will happen. Their response was mixed. I guess nobody really has the answer, they just hope to survive the hard times.

Meantime, although made-in-China has become a synonym for cheap imports, rising costs--including stricter quality control and inspection--in that country may raise commodity prices in the U.S. market.

Will the U.S. ditch or reduce imports to invigorate its own manufacturing at this critical point in time? Or will it rely more on imports to keep inflation down and maintain living standards?

Dell Inc. recently said it will purchase large amounts of components from China to help reduce cost, according to a Reuters story. The computer hardware manufacturer plans to buy US$23 billion of components from China this year and US$29 billion in 2009.

It looked like it's a clear upward trend, until I did some simple math.

Based on the fact Dell will buy a total of US$70 billion of computer-related supplies and equipment from China over the 2007-2009 period, also according to the Reuters story, we can easily figure out that Dell actually spent US$38 billion outsourcing from China in 2007. From $38 billion to $23 billion to $29 billion, would you say it's a boost of spending on outsourcing?

We need a bigger picture here. Is Dell's overall spending on outsourcing going up or down? At what kind of rate? Is China's share of Dell's outsourcing total rising or dipping? What are Dell's other major low-cost import countries? Where is the ratio of Dell's U.S. manufacturing versus overseas procurement headed? These are the questions multinational corporations need to answer, to provide the public with a better idea of what's going on in the economy.

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COMMENTS (2)
China Law Blog:

Good question. At the PN Executive Forum, I spoke with the lead buyer for one of the big fast food companies. He told me that with increased automation here in the US and with rising costs (particularly labor) in China, his company is on the verge of returning to US manufacturers of plastic fork/plastic spoon/plastic knife/napkin sets. I think in the end it will be cost that will decide, just as it always has.

Nina:

That's great insight, Dan. But why is the company you spoke with coming back to the U.S. instead of going to cheaper-than-China places like Vietnam? I'm not promoting outsourcing or offshore manufacturing. I just wonder, if we are about to see a reflux of automation-friendly businesses to developed countries. That'd be very interesting.

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