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1 quarter in China = 1 year in U.S.?

I've been to the annual International Housewares Show in Chicago for two years in a row. Its organizer, the International Housewares Association of Rosemont, Illinois, just sent me an e-mail, touting some interesting materials on its Web site.

The one that interested me was "Manufacturing in Asia: Current reality and emerging trends," an audio-enhanced powerpoint presentation by Michael L. Hetzel, vice president/Americas of Pro QC International.

In the speech, Hetzel tried to bust the myth that the U.S. manufacturing output is dropping. The reality is that it's growing. I'm not sure if that applies to the plastics industry though.

Hetzel downplayed China's role as the world's factory, underscoring that China's industrial output is well below the U.S. output. However, according to today's Financial Times, China is set to overtake the US in 2009 as the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy. Global Insight, a U.S. economics consultancy, conducted the forecast.

Hetzel also questioned the belief that China is "the cause" of America's trade deficit, as the U.S. has a deficit with 13 of its top 15 trading partners.

Hetzel also stressed that the U.S. manufacturing output is going up in spite of the decline in employment.

But wait, he isn't promoting China as a sourcing destination. He made a long list of the challenges China faces and advised businesses to consider different sourcing options around the world.

The last slide concluded: "The U.S. doesn't import too much ... We export too little."

In addition, the Web site also featured a whitepaper on Doing Business with China, which has only one page of executive summary, and another 15-page whitepaper called "Manufacturing in Vietnam."

For some reason, the Vietnam article failed to recognize the sky-high inflation and currency crisis in Vietnam. The addendums have some useful information about logistics, including inland transportation costs. But the quotes were from January 2008, so don't be surprised if it's changed by now.

Some American expats in Shanghai once told me that "Things change so fast in China, it feels like three months in China equals a whole year in the U.S.," pointing out the fast pace of change in China's economy as well as other aspects of society. Very true. Therefore, be sure to take any China/Asia literature, be it business reports, books, or say, my old blog postings, with a grain of salt and do some research for the latest development.

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COMMENTS (2)
Arthur:

I think one big problem we have on understanding China is people in Western World are either reading, watching, or listening to biased media reports, or are being given information by so-called "China hand" who only visited China a few times and think they know everything. Such information is not doing anybody any favour as it does not really help the mutual understanding between Western countries and China.

Jeff:

Dear Author:

There is no doubt that there has been and remain challenges with sourcing or manufacturing in China. But these challenges are not unique to China. They are the same challenges you face when you source off-shores and don't spend the resources to remain intimate with the project. As Arthur mentions in his 12-Aug response, most fears are cultivated within those that have not experienced China in depth. Even within the last year in China, I have witnessed a great increase of sophistication in technology and people. Things do develop quickly in China and have done their part to put China in the position they are in.

The problems the US faces are not due to China, they come from within. China, and other countries, will continue to surpass the expectations all of us have of the US until they can accept the fact traditional means are no longer the answer. What they used to do exceptionally well, others are doing even more and potentially even better. The US must shift its thinking and focus to the next development that only they can do like the US has done for so many years prior.

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