China will eclipse North America in terms of LCD TV shipments by 2011, with substantial growth from consumers of all levels -- tier-1 cities (population greater than 1 million), tier-2 cities and rural regions.

The China's TV Market Report, recently released by Santa Clara, Calif.-based DisplaySearch, also predicts that flat panel TV (including LCD and plasma) shipments in China will rise from 31 million in 2009 to 59 million in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 14 percent. Meantime, the share of flat panel TVs in China's TV market will grow from 72 percent in 2009 to around 100 percent in 2014, when CRTs will effectively disappear.

The report analyzes the trends by regional market segments, screen sizes, technology and specific TV features. It also covers the status of TV manufacturing and exports.

Whether the government subsidy incentives for rural consumers bring new opportunities is of particular interest, the company said.

In China, color TV shipments grew rapidly in the mid-1990s, and because the average lifetime of a color (CRT) TV is eight to 10 years, there is an opportunity for the industry to replace these old TVs - nearly 450 million of them - in the next five to 10 years.

China has been ramping up LCD TV production capacity since last year, said a Nikkei BP report. Industry insiders are concerned that an overcapacity will emerge in 2012, when a large amount of domestic and foreign invested capacity comes on stream in China.

There was a slight undersupply of LCD panels from spring 2009 to mid-2010. With the overcapacity looming large, Chinese products will pose a threat to Japanese and South Korean brands, the Nikkei report said.
Chinese domestic brands currently claim 80 percent market share in China.