The report from Guilsborough-based PCI Films Consulting Ltd. predicted BOPP markets worldwide will grow 5.7 percent a year through 2013, which it believed to be still healthy but a slowdown from the 7.6 percent annual growth rate seen from 2003 to 2008.

The report, “World BOPP Film Market Trends 2008,” said that prospects could improve if China’s economy picks up later this year and India continues to develop its retail and packaged food industries.

PCI cautioned, however, that the near term will still be difficult: “Everyone will continue to be in a weak position for the next two years but things should start to improve from 2011, for all except producers in the Middle Eastern region.”

Overall, the global BOPP industry is expected to expand by one-third by 2013, with the expansion of emerging markets likely meaning a significant change in the who’s who rankings of the top producers.

The sharpest cutback seems to have come in Europe’s 781,000-ton market, where demand volume dropped 3.1 percent in Western Europe in 2008, driven by recessionary pressures and changes in purchasing patterns.

Asia, by contrast, showed a 7 percent growth last year, with China’s 1.8 million-ton market becoming more balanced and suppliers starting to plan expansions.

One film extrusion equipment maker has already sold 10 lines in 2009, with 375,000 tons of new capacity, the report said. Chinese BOPP film producers will be largely focused on their domestic market.

New capacity in Saudi Arabia and India, however, is expected to be more export-oriented, as capacity will exceed local demand, the report said.

The Middle East will emerge as a significant regional BOPP film production center in the next three years, with capacity expected to double as governments there hope to take advantage of lower production costs and target downstream industries, including film extrusion, flexible packaging and food processing, the report said.

PCI said there will be a “strategic shift” away from traditional suppliers toward companies like Dubai-based Taghleef Industries and emerging competitors in developing economies.

“Producers in these mature markets, previously the market leaders, have had to react to the strategic movements of other players in a way they have never had to do,” the report said. “Larger producers, such as Exxonmobil, Treofan and Vifan, have found that having major assets in markets with slowing growth is not a good strategy but have been very slow to invest in regions with growth.”

Companies need to either focus on being a low-cost commodity producer in a large market like China or India, or target specialty niche products with higher margins, PCI said.