Looking into plastics' crystal ball

What trends or innovations will impact the plastics industry in the next quarter century?

Plastics News posed that question to a range of individuals with some potential for prognostication. And the experts talked about design, 3-D printing, growth in the market and reducing time-to-market.

Design gains

Warren Ginn, president of product development firm GinnDesign LLC in Raleigh, N.C., said design has evolved from mere product styling to a serious competitive advantage in the market.

“As the consumer has become more aware of the value of great industrial design and a compelling user experience, OEMs are investing in design and design thinking to drive product innovation and market differentiation,” he said. “In the next 25 years, I expect that trend to continue to where designers are brought into the product development process earlier and remain engaged all the way through to manufacturing.”

Rich Freeman, owner of high-appearance close-tolerance thermoformer Freetech Plastics Inc. of Fremont, Calif., agreed: “Design is going to get more important for better engineered products as industrial designers work closely with engineers to enclose products.”

Andrew Dent, vice president of library and research for New York-based Material ConneXion, a unit of Sandow Media Corp., another design advocate, advises clients on selection of the right materials for applications involving automotive and architectural interiors, consumer electronics, fashions and sportswear. He sees design as a critical function in utilizing “great new materials” for new applications.

Ronn Cort, chief operating officer and president of Sekisui Polymer Innovations LLC of Bloomsburg, Pa., which runs sheet makers Kydex LLC and Allen Extruders LLC., said: “The continued consolidation and collaboration within the supply chain requires an industry moving in tandem. Innovative design and engineering requires new technology and processes in the mold and tool making industries. From our view, design challenges the status quo, so that is where the change starts.”

Howard Blum and Jeffrey Bornstein, principals in the newly established consultancy Chemicals and Plastics Advisory in the Philadelphia area, anticipate plastics processing in North America benefiting from continued productivity improvements and lower energy costs.

“Although North American energy costs are now more manageable with lower cost energy, expect continued efforts to reduce energy consumption in terms of continued process improvement,” they said.

3-D printing evolution

Jeff Kolbow, corporate president of MGS Manufacturing Group in Germantown, Wis., said 3-D printing technology is thought to be limitless as far as geometric design applications are concerned.

“When 3-D printing and additive machining become exponentially faster, we'll see the next major transition in manufacturing,” he said. Currently, MGS uses 3-D printing technology primarily as a research, development and marketing tool.

Ginn said: “Just like every other manufacturing process, these technologies have their unique advantages and disadvantages. While I expect some of the novelty and hype over 3-D printing will fade, the explosion of these technologies has made manufacturers more aware of the possibilities. While I don't see it replacing all of the traditional plastics molding processes, 3-D printing should be viewed as one more option for designers and plastics manufacturing.”

In the next five years, 3-D “will most likely be useful for prototype part development and higher-value short runs,” Blum and Bornstein noted. “Limiting factors are linked to the melt-processing nature of thermoplastics, which generally are too viscous to rapidly flow out of a micro-orifice applicator to allow for large-part molding economics”

Cort said the challenge for 3-D printing is to produce larger parts. “But I never underestimate the rate of change. New polymers for 3-D printing are next on the horizon. And that will be here sooner than later.”

Global standards will exist

Cort sees the advent of global standards and further focus on performance-based specifications, rather than regulations developed from a product specification.

“The globalization and harmonization of code compliance will slowly move from Europe to North America and Asia. It is why we continue to have strong focus in Europe — it is where many of the regulations begin to get traction,” he said.

U.S. Federal Drug Administration requirements, the European Union regulation on registration, evaluation, authorization and restriction of chemicals and other global regulatory entities “will likely further regulate how recycled plastics are used for food contact applications in packaging, especially with regards to leaching of additives or any contaminants,” said Blum and Bornstein.

Regulation on biodegradability claims “will be further delineated to better inform the public,” Blum and Bornstein said. Further definitions of biodegradability will deal with how plastic degrades — whether in mulch, in the ocean or in the open air — as well as speed of degradation.

“The actions of large and influential governments are very difficult to plan for,” Kolbow said. “The governments of evolved and evolving countries have demonstrated the desire for involvement, resulting in additional requirements for manufacturing.”

More growth

Blum and Bornstein said plastics will continue to replace metal, paper and glass and that the polymer industry's growth will likely exceed growth of gross domestic product by 1 to 2 percent “albeit a lower rate compared to previous decades.”

Dent said plastics will take a larger portion of the economy. “Plastics are everywhere and solve so many of our existing problems.” At the same time, “we must be careful and sensible about the uses of plastics. There are many places where we can't use plastics.”

Some concerns exist as so many “great resources” go in to landfills, Dent noted. “We need to separate elements by atomic structure or mass. Landfills are a gold mine of materials.”

Ginn said: “I can't image plastics disappearing from the market,” while “the younger generation of designers are much more aware of the impact of using petroleum-based polymers, the issues surrounding the end-of-life for products and their disposal or reuse. With the growth of plant-based polymers like polylactic acid, I can foresee a growing need to find suitable applications for these materials as an alternative to traditional polymers.”

“The big challenge for our industry is the education about plastics,” Cort said. “As we continue to share the environmental sustainability and job creation opportunities that come with increased use of polymers, I expect plastics to continue to help grow the U.S. economy. A logical energy policy promoting energy independence is needed. The impact of low natural gas costs needs to be considered an opportunity to help the U.S. grow our export opportunities as a nation.”

Kolbow noted: “As manufacturers continue to design and engineer plastic components for metal and glass replacement, the industry should continue to grow. More importantly, given the enormous trade surplus the U.S. plastics industry enjoys, the service and materials providers in our industry should continue to be a growing and driving force in the U.S. economy.”

Reshoring

Ginn thinks the pendulum is swinging back to the U.S. in terms of finding sources for cost-effective and efficient manufacturing.

“With the growth of the middle class in Asia, overseas manufacturing isn't necessarily the low-cost panacea it once was,” he said. “There needs to be an incentive for young people to consider manufacturing as a career choice. I know that my clients often comment about how challenging it can be to find enough qualified domestic suppliers. This is particularly true for medical device manufacturers who are required to find suppliers in the U.S.”

Cort noted: “We love global manufacturers that outsource and partner with contact molders. It is my view that companies should focus on their core competencies — and our obligation as a supplier to the industry is connecting the right suppliers and customers — removing non-value added actions and processes. Early, open and constructive collaboration is the opportunity to embrace.”

Blum and Bornstein said that outsourcing by manufacturers located in North America will adjust and slowly become North America-focused once again. “Outsourcing by OEMs located in Asia Pacific is expected to continue to migrate to other developing countries such as Vietnam as China manufacturing costs increase.”

Kolbow discussed the captive-vs.-custom question for OEMs.

“Sometimes the reason to outsource is simple business logic,” Kolbow noted. “Custom molding is generally not considered a core competency of an OEM/brand owner.”

Freeman said: “OEMs continue to revise product every so many years. If they are at right time in product cycle, and they're looking for high appearance enclosure, we are possible. But when someone wants something super cheap, that is not our niche.”

Industry consolidation

Cort sees continued consolidation to efficiently support high-volume global businesses. “That, in turn, opens up opportunity for smaller, niche and boutique manufacturers who can drive innovation in small-scale higher-margin industries.”

Kolbow said: “As OEMs continue to ask vendors to provide more services, molders will be asked to provide product design services, post-mold product assembly and packaging as well as distribution. These requests will continue to fuel further consolidation and vertical ties.”

Kolbow noted that vertically integrated single-sourced providers have begun forming and extending the conventional definition of a contract manufacturer.

Blum and Bornstein envision consolidation continuing in developed countries but at a slower rate.

“There are increasingly fewer large companies that are available for acquisition,” they said. Companies with sales up to $500 million will continue to be acquisition targets, and “efforts towards greater vertical integration will likely slow.”

Blum and Bornstein note another emerging trend with “large companies spinning off their lower-margin plastics processing operations to once again become independent companies, albeit owned by the same shareholders, venture capital groups or single large owners.”

Within thermoforming, Freeman noted regional consolidations primarily among thin-gauge businesses and suggested that the trend “may start to happen in heavy- gauge business” in which Freetech competes. Fewer firms are in the pool, however, because “bottom feeders disappeared in last contraction.”

Time-to-market

Today's culture dwells on the business-to-consumer model involving the Internet and electronic commerce.

“As the millennials and the generation behind them move into the workplace, it is logical to assume they will expect the same type of ‘quick turnaround' and ‘immediate lead time' that they expect in their personal lives,” Cort said. “The opportunity for the benefits of ‘short lead times' needs to be embraced industry-wide. Our lead times for custom production of short runs in a unique custom color are less than 12 days. I want that to be five days. Our customers will eventually expect two days.”

Kolbow said: “Customers will continue to place an increasingly higher value on suppliers to provide shorter design-for-manufacture, prototype, mold construction, sampling, process development and qualification services. It is very common to see delays in projects due to extended decision making. The OEM/brand owner will best achieve a shorter cycle by starting the process earlier and teaming their involved internal departments — engineering and marketing — with their suppliers as a true development partner.”

Blum and Bornstein said continued adoption of computer, information technology and software can shorten time-to-market cycles along with greater use of customer-to-molder- to-resin supplier telemetric tracking and ordering systems. In addition, “rapid prototyping with 3-D printing will speed up product development efforts.”

Ginn observed: “Some reduction in time-to-market can be realized by bringing designers, engineers and supplier earlier into the product development process. The earlier a designer can become involved, the larger the impact on efficiency

Plastic coffins

In an offbeat sustainability thought, scientist and demographer Robert T. Lundy of Del Mar, Calif., suggests future use of only recycled plastics in the manufacturing of funeral coffins. The material change could divert some polymers from society's burgeoning landfills and eliminate the need for a burial vault or liner to protect each coffin. The idea stems from a discussion with his brother, Eric W. Lundy, who operates Heritage Memorial Cemetery in Waldorf, Md.