The Shape of the Recovery: An Economic Outlook
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Sponsored by Plastics Industry Association
Featuring Plastics News Economic Columnist, Bill Wood and Plastics Industry Association Chief Economist, Perc Pineda. As we move into the recovery what will it look like? Moderated by Plastics News Editor, Don Loepp.
- The timing and the shape of the recovery. There is a lot of speculation about whether we get a V-shape, U-shape, L-shape, W-shape, etc. What is implied by these shapes, and what are some of the markers or indicators that mean one shape is more probable than another. In other words, what are the steps we will go through? Which industry sectors recovery first? Are there sectors that won't fully recover? What's next?
- The reconfiguration of supply chains. Some products/chains will be re-shored, some probably won't change, and some will just be moved to another country other than China. China has been a huge problem for the plastics industry. Has the market perception of Chinese products changed? What is the process that drives these decisions?
- What happens to sustainability? Recycling? Materials prices? The price of virgin material made from fossil fuels is dropping, and many resins producers are scaling back production. At the same time, the transition back to the "new normal" looks like it is going to come with a huge set of new regulations (PPE for workers, social distancing for customers, masks and hand sanitizer requirements, etc.). The efforts to promote greater sustainability and recycling involved new regulations (e.g. bag bans), but now these regulations are being suspended. How will the market respond to all of these new and/or changing regulations?
- Is the market perception of the plastics industry changing? How? Are medical supplies and sterilized packaging the new rallying cry for the industry, or is our new problem increased medical waste?
Perc Pineda, PhD
As the Chief Economist of Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), Perc Pineda serves as the organization’s primary staff expert on economics, statistics, and industry research. His views on the economy have been widely quoted in the media, and his works have been published in peer-reviewed economic and trade journals. Since joining PLASTICS, Perc has enriched the organization’s research publications, industry data, and forecast such as the Plastics Quarterly forecast, the annual Plastics Business Outlook index, and Plastics Market Watch reports.
Perc received his Doctor of Philosophy and Master of Philosophy in Economics from the New School of Social Research in New York, NY. He also holds a Master of Arts in Economics from the American University in Washington, D.C. and a Master in International Management from the University of Maryland.
Before joining PLASTICS, Perc was the Senior Economist of the Credit Union National Association, where he tracked macroeconomic trends, conducted economic research, wrote articles for industry publications, and interfaced with the media. His over 20 years of experience includes academia, international financial institution, and trade association work. As an economics professor, he taught macroeconomics at the St. Francis College in New York, NY and microeconomics, finance, and economics of regulations and the law at the City University of New York. Prior to a stint in academia, he was at the International Monetary Fund, and the U.S. Dairy Export Council working on market access and regulatory affairs.