There's a statistic related to ocean plastics that shows up in regular discussions about pollution: By 2050, there will be more plastic in the ocean than fish.
The number comes from a mainstream source, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which released that pearl of wisdom in 2016. But the fact-checking website Snopes is now questioning the validity of that statement.
The foundation, it says, relied on data about the amount of plastics that are unintentionally released into waterways from a study that has since been pulled back by its authors. Also, Snopes adds, the information used in the EMF statistic from another study undercounted sea life.
"While the numbers cited in the EMF report were likely used in good faith, the authors of the studies used to make the claim in the report have since rowed back on their original findings," writes Laerke Christensen for Snopes.
The number relating to the amount of plastics released into the ocean was based on a 2015 report from The Ocean Conservancy, "Stemming the Tide." Within a few years, the authors reconsidered their own findings. In 2022, The Ocean Conservancy apologized for the report.
At the same time, the MacArthur Foundation statistic relied on a 2008 report that underestimated the amount of phytoplankton — the base feedstock for fish — in the oceans, leading to a low estimate on the number of fish in waterways.
But while that claim about plastics and fish in 2050 may be back up for debate, there's still work to be done because plastic still is showing up where it doesn't belong.
"Deciding whether there is more plastic or fish in the sea isn't as simple as the EMF report made it seem," Christensen writes. "That, however, doesn't blunt ongoing initiatives both to preserve fish stocks and prevent harmful plastics from reaching the sea."
