Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Sustainable Plastics
  • Plastics News China
  • Rubber & Plastics News
logo-pn-color
Subscribe
  • Login
  • Register
  • Subscribe
  • News
    • Processor News
    • Suppliers
    • More News
    • End Markets
    • FYI Charts
    • LSR World
    • Multimedia
    • NPE2021
    • K Show
    • Special Reports
    • Top materials of injection molders
      Recycled PET use by product category
      US PET, flexible packaging desintations
      Global fluropolymers additives market: CAGR
    • NPE exhibitors question handling of deposits for canceled trade show
      Exhibitors back NPE cancellation: ‘We couldn't take that risk'
      NPE2021 canceled as in-person event
      NPE reviews its options as pandemic prompts exhibitor to exit
    • Injection Molding
    • Blow Molding
    • Film & Sheet
    • Pipe/Profile/Tubing
    • Rotomolding
    • Thermoforming
    • Recycling
    • Machinery
    • Materials
    • Molds/Tooling
    • Product news
    • Design
    • What Keeps You Up At Night
    • Mergers & Acquisitions
    • Sustainability
    • Public Policy
    • Material Insights Videos
    • Numbers that Matter
    • Polymer Points Live
    • Automotive
    • Packaging
    • Medical
    • Consumer Products
    • Construction
    • Videos
    • Galleries
    • Podcasts
    • CEO Issue
    • Best Places to Work
    • Processor of the Year
    • Rising Stars
    • Women Breaking the Mold
  • Opinion
    • The Plastics Blog
    • Kickstart
    • Heavy Metal
    • One Good Resin
    • BRICS and Plastics
    • All Things Data
    • Viewpoint
    • From Pillar to Post
    • Perspective
    • Mailbag
    • Perspective: Making the best of working from home
      Nypro's Gordon Lankton left the plastics industry a better place
      Recognizing Plastek Industries for all-around excellence
      Let's look forward, rather than back, to mark COVID anniversary
    • Kickstart: Plastics ready to take flight on Mars
      Kickstart: Let's hear it for leftovers
      Kickstart: Big data, big bowls and consumer packaging
      Kickstart: A vexing vaccination question
    • Heavy Metal: Coronavirus edition, plus the work of working from home
      Don't put off succession planning
      What's a good gift for your cobot? Batteries?
      Here's some big ideas to mull over the holidays
    • PE resin trends highlighted in Shell report
      Dow's Lowry honored by World Economic Forum for sustainability work
      Africa impacts new colors from Ampacet
      Plaskolite marches into madness with its own online bracket
    • Climate debate in Washington increasingly includes plastic
      There was no choice but canceling NPE still a big deal
      The business case for producer responsibility
      Think divided government stalls plastics legislation? Think again
    • Want prices? Introducing historical resin pricing, now available in a downloadable form
      A new annual ranking: Top processor gains
      Thermoformers: Would you believe a 12 percent gain?
      Just how big is thermoforming in North America?
    • Working from home: Rugrats edition
      Nypro's Gordon Lankton left the plastics industry a better place
      Let's look forward, rather than back, to mark COVID anniversary
      Virtual pitfalls derail exhibits for builders' trade show
    • PEX pipe maker Uponor donates $30,000 for Texas storm relief
      Virtual pitfalls derail exhibits for builders' trade show
      PPI puts $200 bounty on exhumed HDPE conduit
      Raise the roof: Housing starts hit a 12-year high
    • Perspective: Making the best of working from home
      Perspective: The Materials Wars: Is plastic actually better?
      Perspective: Plastics manufacturers — a surprising contribution to sustainability
      Plastics industry business owners: Listen to your future workforce
    • Mailbag: Additional fees for electric vehicles ‘unfortunate'
      Mailbag: Where's the plastics industry's response to critics?
      Mailbag: Manufacturers struggling to follow COVID-19 safety rules
      Modernizing recycling infrastructure will benefit businesses as well as the environment
  • Shop Floor
    • Blending
    • Compounding
    • Drying
    • Injection Molding
    • Purging
    • Robotics
    • Size Reduction
    • Structural Foam
    • Tooling
    • Training
    • Maintenance can ensure efficient blender operation
      Dosing: Perfect for adding color
      Blending vs dosing: What you need to know
      Going low or high: Comparing volume
    • Colors and custom compounds
      In the laboratory: Compounding solutions
      Recycling content: Resins going ‘green’
      Compounding: Glass and other fillers
    • Dryer maintenance: Don’t err with air
      Dryers: Options for a shop’s process
      Dryer installation: Going central?
      Resins: Hygroscopic or non-hygroscopic
    • Electric injection molding presses: Efficiency is key
      Hydraulic injection molding machines
      Proper maintenance can prevent downtime
      Hybrid injection molding machines
    • Purging Hot runners: Open or closed methods
      Purging extrusion machinery
      Purging extrusion blow molding machines
      Purging: Chemical, abrasive and non-abrasive
    • Controls, special applications boost production, profitability
      Robot maintenance key for smooth operation
      High-speed robots: A rapid way to increase efficiency
      Robots: Every shape and size
    • Maintenance: Key for efficiency
      Shredders: Plastic in pieces
      Safety first for size reduction
      Granulators: The right fit
    • Video: Structural foam molding
      Structural foam molding: Flexibility for processors
    • Mold inventory: How many molds does a shop have?
      Molds: Innovation
      Mold changeover: Saving time and money
      How molds work
    • Labor: Apprenticeships may provide answer
      Internships: Solving the skills gap in-house
      College training, programs
      Lean Six Sigma: Transforming business operation
  • Events
    • Plastics News Events
    • Industry Events
    • Livestreams/Webinars
    • Ask the Expert
    • Polymer Points Live
    • Reifenhäuser Technologies Livestreams
    • 2020 Caps & Closures Library
    • Plastics in Healthcare Library
    • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum Library
    • Polymer Points Live - April 2021
      Polymer Points Live - February 2021
      Polymer Points Live - January 2021
      Polymer Points Live - December 2020
    • Plastics in Healthcare 2020
    • Plastics News Executive Forum
    • Plastics in Automotive
    • Plastics News Caps & Closures
    • Plastics in Healthcare
    • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum
  • Resin Prices
    • All Resins
    • Commodity TPs
    • High Temp TPs
    • ETPs
    • Thermosets
    • Recycled Plastics
    • Historic Commodity Thermoplastics
    • Historic High Temp Thermoplastics
    • Historic Engineering Thermoplastics
    • Historic Thermosets
    • Historic Recycled Plastics
  • Rankings
    • Injection Molders
    • Blow Molders
    • Film Sheet
    • Thermoformers
    • Pipe Profile Tubing
    • Rotomolders
    • Mold/Toolmakers
    • LSR Processors
    • Recyclers
    • Compounders - List
    • Association - List
    • Plastic Lumber - List
    • All
  • Data Store
  • Directory
  • More+
    • Classifieds
    • Digital Edition
    • Newsletters
    • Sponsored Content
    • KraussMaffei Sponsored Content
    • ENGEL Sponsored Content
    • White Papers
    • Processor of the Year submissions
    • Sponsored By Bandera
      Bandera US was born for the North American market
      Sponsored By Ensign Equipment
      Filling systems customized for any process or budget need
      KraussMaffei
      Sponsored By KraussMaffei
      KraussMaffei retools in US with investment from parent ownership
      Sponsored By Mitsubishi
      Innovative new technology from Mitsubishi Engineering-Plastics Corporation helps reduce emission footprints
    • KraussMaffei
      Sponsored By KraussMaffei
      KraussMaffei Retools in US with investment from Parent Ownership
    • Sponsored By ENGEL Machinery
      Tailored maintenance for injection molding machines and robots
      Sponsored By ENGEL Machinery
      Improve maintenance efficiency with e-connect.monitor
      Sponsored By ENGEL Machinery
      Maximum precision for lowest shot weights
      Sponsored By ENGEL Machinery
      Even more cost effectiveness for small precision parts
    • Shell Polymer
      Sponsored By Shell Polymers
      Food and beverage trends impacting the polymer industry
      Sponsored By Conexiom
      Use Sales Order Automation to free up time for CSRs to focus on customers, not manual entry
    • Place an Ad
    • Sign up for Early Classified
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. News
August 16, 2019 10:51 AM

Analysts: Automotive suppliers should ‘expect the unexpected'

Audrey LaForest
Plastics News Staff
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Audrey LaForest
    Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at IHS Markit Ltd., speaks at the Center for Automotive Research's Management Briefing Seminars.

    Traverse City, Mich. — A mixture of positive and negative factors is making it difficult for automotive analysts to firmly forecast hurdles and triumphs in the industry. And the uncertainty is creating some uneasiness among suppliers, the analysts said during a session at the 2019 CAR Management Briefing Seminars, held Aug. 6-8.

    Ongoing trade issues — including tit-for-tat tariffs and the signed, but not ratified, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — are some of the main sources of the industry's anxiety, they said.

    "They're causing uncertainty because they make capacity planning and other factors more challenging by being unresolved and potentially having a huge impact on the industry," said Bernard Swiecki, director of the Automotive Communities Partnership at the Center for Automotive Research.

    Swiecki is also the assistant director of Ann Arbor, Mich.-based CAR's industry, labor and economics group.

    "It really appears that the best advice is to expect the unexpected and prepare for just about every eventuality," he said. "There does not seem to be a magic formula right now for a supplier."

    Center for Automotive Research
    Swiecki

    There is good news for the automotive industry, however, in terms of gross domestic product growth, steady oil prices, low unemployment, wage growth, robust consumer confidence and downward-trending interest rates, among other positives.

    More vehicle mixes in the overall volume is good for suppliers, too, Swiecki said.

    "More now than ever before, your mix within that volume is critical, and it's very fortunate that it's trending in a positive direction with folks choosing to buy the pricier vehicles, where there's a greater chance of a margin not just for the automaker that built that vehicle, but for the supplier as well," he said.

    Trucks and SUVs are still growing globally, while cars are declining, said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at IHS Markit Ltd.

    "The SUV nameplates are growing faster than the market itself, which makes it difficult to support," she said.

    The automotive industry has also seen "a tremendous amount of growth" in electric vehicles and corresponding technology, said Jeff Schuster, president of the Americas operations and global vehicle forecasts at LMC Automotive Ltd.

    This has resulted in top-dollar investments from automakers and suppliers as they try to carve out their share of the market.

    "I think the issue in the near term is all of the investment that's poured into this without a return, combine that with the autonomous investment without a return," Schuster said. "At some point, that's going to have to give, so that's another pressure point."

    The industry is still bracing for a downturn. Though, when it hits, Swiecki said "its impact will not be quite as hard felt" because there is no bubble to burst.

    Center for Automotive Research
    Schuster

    "The economy gets to be the economy without a particular threat hanging over it," he said.

    CAR's automotive sales outlook forecasts U.S. light vehicles sales at 16.8 million units this year, followed by a continued decline in 2020 and in 2021, when sales are expected to hit their lowest at 16.5 million units. Sales are projected to rebound by 2022 and continue upward through 2025.

    The automotive industry has been in a positive cycle. 2019 could mark the first year auto sales fall below 17 million units since 2014.

    Swiecki said too much time in a positive cycle can create a "paranoid state" in the industry, where everyone is bracing for the bad news.

    "We don't actually need the recession formally, right? What we need is folks to start spending as if there is a recession and then you have the same negative impact," he said.

    The level of uncertainty is high and that causes a lot of concerns, Schuster said. But that uncertainty and the risk associated with it is here to stay even if the underlying issues change over time.

    The No. 1 message Schuster had for suppliers is to do your homework, make sure you're on the right vehicle programs and make sure the volume is there to support it.

    "If we behave like there's a downturn, there will be a downturn," he said.

    Letter
    to the
    Editor

    Do you have an opinion about this story? Do you have some thoughts you'd like to share with our readers? Plastics News would love to hear from you. Email your letter to Editor at [email protected]

    Get our newsletters

    Staying current is easy with Plastics News delivered straight to your inbox, free of charge.

    Subscribe today

    Subscribe to Plastics News

    Subscribe now
    Connect with Us
    • LinkedIn
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram

    Plastics News covers the business of the global plastics industry. We report news, gather data and deliver timely information that provides our readers with a competitive advantage.

    logo-pn-color
    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI 48207-2997

    Customer Service:
    877-320-1723

    Resources
    • About
    • Staff
    • Editorial Calendar
    • Media Kit
    • Data Store
    • Digital Edition
    • Custom Content
    • People
    • Contact
    • Careers
    • Sitemap
    Related Crain Publications
    • Sustainable Plastics
    • Rubber & Plastics News
    • Urethanes Technology
    • Plastics News China
    • European Rubber Journal
    • Tire Business
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • News
      • Processor News
        • Injection Molding
        • Blow Molding
        • Film & Sheet
        • Pipe/Profile/Tubing
        • Rotomolding
        • Thermoforming
        • Recycling
      • Suppliers
        • Machinery
        • Materials
        • Molds/Tooling
        • Product news
        • Design
      • More News
        • What Keeps You Up At Night
        • Mergers & Acquisitions
        • Sustainability
        • Public Policy
        • Material Insights Videos
        • Numbers that Matter
        • Polymer Points Live
      • End Markets
        • Automotive
        • Packaging
        • Medical
        • Consumer Products
        • Construction
      • FYI Charts
        • Current FYI
      • LSR World
      • Multimedia
        • Videos
        • Galleries
        • Podcasts
      • NPE2021
      • K Show
      • Special Reports
        • CEO Issue
        • Best Places to Work
        • Processor of the Year
        • Rising Stars
        • Women Breaking the Mold
    • Opinion
      • The Plastics Blog
      • Kickstart
      • Heavy Metal
      • One Good Resin
      • BRICS and Plastics
      • All Things Data
      • Viewpoint
      • From Pillar to Post
      • Perspective
      • Mailbag
    • Shop Floor
      • Blending
      • Compounding
      • Drying
      • Injection Molding
      • Purging
      • Robotics
      • Size Reduction
      • Structural Foam
      • Tooling
      • Training
    • Events
      • Plastics News Events
        • Plastics News Executive Forum
        • Plastics in Automotive
        • Plastics News Caps & Closures
        • Plastics in Healthcare
        • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum
      • Industry Events
      • Livestreams/Webinars
      • Ask the Expert
      • Polymer Points Live
      • Reifenhäuser Technologies Livestreams
      • 2020 Caps & Closures Library
      • Plastics in Healthcare Library
      • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum Library
    • Resin Prices
      • All Resins
      • Commodity TPs
        • Historic Commodity Thermoplastics
      • High Temp TPs
        • Historic High Temp Thermoplastics
      • ETPs
        • Historic Engineering Thermoplastics
      • Thermosets
        • Historic Thermosets
      • Recycled Plastics
        • Historic Recycled Plastics
    • Rankings
      • Injection Molders
      • Blow Molders
      • Film Sheet
      • Thermoformers
      • Pipe Profile Tubing
      • Rotomolders
      • Mold/Toolmakers
      • LSR Processors
      • Recyclers
      • Compounders - List
      • Association - List
      • Plastic Lumber - List
      • All
    • Data Store
    • Directory
    • More+
      • Classifieds
        • Place an Ad
        • Sign up for Early Classified
      • Digital Edition
      • Newsletters
      • Sponsored Content
      • KraussMaffei Sponsored Content
      • ENGEL Sponsored Content
      • White Papers
      • Processor of the Year submissions