California plastics tax referendum puts industry in 'very difficult' spot

The early polling on California's plastics tax referendum next year shows it to be popular and that could place plastics groups opposing the ballot measure in a "very difficult" situation, according to industry and environmental lobbyists.

California voters, who adopted a plastic bag ban on a statewide vote in 2016, will cast ballots in a referendum next year asking for a tax of up to 1 cent on most single-use plastics to fund environmental cleanup and recycling.

While the vote won't happen until November 2022, it's already attracting attention from a plastics group that says public opinion surveys show a difficult fight.

"We've seen some polling that shows that it's going to be very, very difficult to not have people vote yes on the ballot initiative as it stands," said Shannon Crawford, director of state government affairs at the Plastics Industry Association.

She told a Nov. 5 industry conference that "it really does not look good for trying to fight this."

"This is a top priority for us, trying to figure out some way to get something more favorable to industry out there," she told the online Plastics Packaging Summit, which was sponsored by the Washington-based trade association.

Ahead of the 2016 plastic bag vote, industry and environmental groups spent millions of dollars trying to persuade voters. In the end, 13.5 million Californians cast ballots and approved it by a 53-47 percent margin.

With next year's referendum including many more types of plastic packaging, spending on this ballot initiative could easily exceed the 2016 campaign.

The plastics association and other industry groups declined to discuss polling or their plans in detail, but environmental groups in the state said their surveys also show the plastics referendum is popular.

Sacramento-based Californians Against Waste pointed to polling from last year, which found that nearly two-thirds of likely voters support the referendum, including 61 percent who favor the tax.

CAW said it poll-tested what it sees as likely industry messages against the referendum and believes it can maintain support.

"Given a strong campaign, the measure has a strong chance of withstanding heavy opposition spending by the plastics industry," according to a summary of polling released by CAW.

Nick Lapis, director of advocacy for CAW, said polls by CAW and other groups suggest it's an issue that resonates with voters.

"All of them show the ballot measure is incredibly popular and people's opinions are pretty locked in based on description alone, so not a ton of room to move opinions," Lapis said. "The voters have been ahead of the legislators on this issue for a long time."

The referendum also may shift the political debate in California.

Plastics legislation favored by environmentalists could not cross the finish line in each of the last two years in Sacramento, but the threat of voters passing a tax may lead to more bargaining.

The plastics association said in written comments that it's hopeful a legislative compromise could be reached to avoid the referendum.

"I think both sides are still hoping to avoid an incredibly expensive ballot initiative fight when there is a lot of shared agreement that a comprehensive legislative solution would be the better route to take," said Matt Seaholm, the association's vice president of government affairs.

But CAW downplayed the idea of a legislative alternative, saying environmental groups are putting their attention toward the referendum.

"I'd say that all the proponents of the ballot measure will gladly review anything the industry puts forward, but at this point we are focused on passing the ballot measure," Lapis said.

It's not clear what legislative compromise could be reached that would satisfy both sides. Some industry groups have floated expensive initiatives.

The plastics association declined to comment on potential legislative fixes. Seaholm said that "the devil is in the details and that's why we feel a compromise that brings both sides together through legislative action is in the best interest of everyone."

But he added that "the industry is preparing for a variety of scenarios."

The environmental group Oceana, which has been heavily involved in California's debates, said it looked forward to the ballot.

"State leaders have missed opportunities to comprehensively combat plastic pollution, but now Californians have the power to enact change," said Ashley Blacow-Draeger, Pacific policy and communications manager. "We're excited that voters will have the opportunity to directly weigh in on this growing problem."

The American Chemistry Council and the Sacramento-based Western Plastics Association declined to comment on their plans.

The vote has been several years in the making. Supporters originally wanted it to be on the 2020 ballot, but the pandemic delayed signature gathering until this year.

The most prominent part of the referendum would give the state agency CalRecycle authority to put a tax of up to one penny on single-use plastics packaging, utensils and containers.

It would also ban food vendors from using expanded polystyrene containers and require CalRecycle to develop plans to try to cut single-use plastic waste by 25 percent by 2030.

Some products would be exempt from the tax, including single-use packaging for medical products, prescription drugs and infant formula.

A state government analysis said it's not clear how much money the tax would raise but estimated it could be several billion dollars a year.

Of the proceeds, 50 percent would go to state and local government recycling, composting and waste reduction efforts, and to boost supplies of recycled materials.

Thirty percent would go to mitigate past damage from plastic pollution, and 20 percent would be transferred to local governments to upgrade waste and recycling systems.