Supply of recycled PET will not come remotely close to meeting demand in 2030 if brand owners keep to their public commitments to use more recycled content, according to one consulting firm.
McKinsey & Co.'s look into the market predicts demand will exceed supply "by about three times" in 2030 as the market has been slow to unlock additional recycled PET supply.
The market, which relies on recycled bottles, serves a variety of end markets that include films, textiles, strapping, and food and beverage containers.
"Over the past few years, there has been no step-change increase in PET collection or sorting. As a consequence, rPET supply has only grown at approximately 1 percent per annum over the 2012–22 period in North America," an article recently published by McKinsey states.
"While there have been some new entrants in the reclamation and reprocessing section of the value chain, there have been no significant corresponding reductions in process losses," it says.
McKinsey states PET has a recycling rate of 27 percent, but about one-third of the material collected is lost during processing, leaving the category with an actual recycling rate of 18 percent.
"Historically, over the 2012–22 period, we have seen rPET supply grow at only about 1 percent per annum, while consumption has increased by approximately 4 percent per annum over the same period," the article states.