Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Sustainable Plastics
  • Plastics News China
  • Rubber & Plastics News
logo-pn-color
Subscribe
  • Login
  • Register
  • Subscribe
  • News
    • Processor News
    • Suppliers
    • More News
    • End Markets
    • FYI Charts
    • LSR World
    • Multimedia
    • NPE2021
    • K Show
    • Special Reports
    • Top materials of injection molders
      Recycled PET use by product category
      US PET, flexible packaging desintations
      Global fluropolymers additives market: CAGR
    • NPE exhibitors question handling of deposits for canceled trade show
      Exhibitors back NPE cancellation: ‘We couldn't take that risk'
      NPE2021 canceled as in-person event
      NPE reviews its options as pandemic prompts exhibitor to exit
    • Injection Molding
    • Blow Molding
    • Film & Sheet
    • Pipe/Profile/Tubing
    • Rotomolding
    • Thermoforming
    • Recycling
    • Machinery
    • Materials
    • Molds/Tooling
    • Product news
    • Design
    • What Keeps You Up At Night
    • Mergers & Acquisitions
    • Sustainability
    • Public Policy
    • Material Insights Videos
    • Numbers that Matter
    • Polymer Points Live
    • Automotive
    • Packaging
    • Medical
    • Consumer Products
    • Construction
    • Videos
    • Galleries
    • Podcasts
    • CEO Issue
    • Best Places to Work
    • Processor of the Year
    • Rising Stars
    • Women Breaking the Mold
  • Opinion
    • The Plastics Blog
    • Kickstart
    • Heavy Metal
    • One Good Resin
    • BRICS and Plastics
    • All Things Data
    • Viewpoint
    • Perspective
    • Mailbag
    • Getting back on the road
      How long will it take for EVs to replace internal combustion engines?
      Watching, and hoping, for progress in 2021
      COVID-19 stories dominate 2020 headlines
    • Kickstart: More toys for your collection
      Kickstart: Microchips, masks and US manufacturing
      Kickstart: Bringing plastics, sustainability to the construction site
      Kickstart: Making more US beds
    • Heavy Metal: Coronavirus edition, plus the work of working from home
      Don't put off succession planning
      What's a good gift for your cobot? Batteries?
      Here's some big ideas to mull over the holidays
    • Green feet: Braskem partners with Dansko on bio-based clogs
      Curbell donates plastic sheet for prosthetics project in Ecuador
      Covestro volunteers build ramp for Ohio veteran
      Chase expands giving campaign in 2020
    • There was no choice but canceling NPE still a big deal
      The business case for producer responsibility
      Think divided government stalls plastics legislation? Think again
      ACC, NAM eye economic priorities in Biden presidency
    • Thermoformers: Would you believe a 12 percent gain?
      Just how big is thermoforming in North America?
      Changing names for compounders embracing corporate branding
      Diversity the key to outperforming the market
    • Thermoformers: Would you believe a 12 percent gain?
      The benefits of getting social
      Rising Stars shine bright future on industry
      Getting back on the road
    • Perspective: Plastics manufacturers — a surprising contribution to sustainability
      Plastics industry business owners: Listen to your future workforce
      Perspective: ‘Fake news' of a different sort?
      Perspective: Making products in the USA is good for the planet
    • Mailbag: Additional fees for electric vehicles ‘unfortunate'
      Mailbag: Where's the plastics industry's response to critics?
      Mailbag: Manufacturers struggling to follow COVID-19 safety rules
      Modernizing recycling infrastructure will benefit businesses as well as the environment
  • Shop Floor
    • Blending
    • Compounding
    • Drying
    • Injection Molding
    • Purging
    • Robotics
    • Size Reduction
    • Structural Foam
    • Tooling
    • Training
    • Maintenance can ensure efficient blender operation
      Dosing: Perfect for adding color
      Blending vs dosing: What you need to know
      Going low or high: Comparing volume
    • Colors and custom compounds
      In the laboratory: Compounding solutions
      Recycling content: Resins going ‘green’
      Compounding: Glass and other fillers
    • Dryer maintenance: Don’t err with air
      Dryers: Options for a shop’s process
      Dryer installation: Going central?
      Resins: Hygroscopic or non-hygroscopic
    • Electric injection molding presses: Efficiency is key
      Hydraulic injection molding machines
      Proper maintenance can prevent downtime
      Hybrid injection molding machines
    • Purging Hot runners: Open or closed methods
      Purging extrusion machinery
      Purging extrusion blow molding machines
      Purging: Chemical, abrasive and non-abrasive
    • Controls, special applications boost production, profitability
      Robot maintenance key for smooth operation
      High-speed robots: A rapid way to increase efficiency
      Robots: Every shape and size
    • Maintenance: Key for efficiency
      Shredders: Plastic in pieces
      Safety first for size reduction
      Granulators: The right fit
    • Structural foam molding: Flexibility for processors
      Video: Structural foam molding
    • Mold inventory: How many molds does a shop have?
      Molds: Innovation
      Mold changeover: Saving time and money
      How molds work
    • Labor: Apprenticeships may provide answer
      College training, programs
      Internships: Solving the skills gap in-house
      Lean Six Sigma: Transforming business operation
  • Events
    • Plastics News Events
    • Industry Events
    • Livestreams/Webinars
    • Ask the Expert
    • Polymer Points Live
    • Reifenhäuser Technologies Livestreams
    • 2020 Caps & Closures Library
    • Plastics in Healthcare Library
    • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum Library
    • Polymer Points Live - February 2021
      Polymer Points Live - January 2021
      Polymer Points Live - December 2020
      Polymer Points Live - October 2020
    • Plastics in Healthcare 2020
    • Plastics News Executive Forum
    • Plastics in Automotive
    • Plastics News Caps & Closures
    • Plastics in Healthcare
    • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum
  • Resin Prices
    • All Resins
    • Commodity TPs
    • High Temp TPs
    • ETPs
    • Thermosets
    • Recycled Plastics
    • Historic Commodity Thermoplastics
    • Historic High Temp Thermoplastics
    • Historic Engineering Thermoplastics
    • Historic Thermosets
    • Historic Recycled Plastics
  • Rankings
    • Injection Molders
    • Blow Molders
    • Film Sheet
    • Thermoformers
    • Pipe Profile Tubing
    • Rotomolders
    • Mold/Toolmakers
    • LSR Processors
    • Recyclers
    • Compounders - List
    • Association - List
    • Plastic Lumber - List
    • All
  • Data Store
  • Directory
  • More+
    • Classifieds
    • Digital Edition
    • Newsletters
    • Sponsored Content
    • White Papers
    • Processor of the Year submissions
    • Sponsored By Mitsubishi
      Innovative new technology from Mitsubishi Engineering-Plastics Corporation helps reduce emission footprints
      Canon Virginia, Inc.
      Sponsored Content By Canon Virginia, Inc.
      Canon Virginia Inc. brings collaboration to the table
      Sponsored By CDS MACHINES
      Facing medical equipment shortages during COVID-19 outbreak?
      Sponsored Content By Canon Virginia, Inc.
      Transform your molding capabilities with the Canon Shuttle Mold System
    • Sponsored By Conexiom
      Use Sales Order Automation to free up time for CSRs to focus on customers, not manual entry
    • Place an Ad
    • Sign up for Early Classified
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. News
June 18, 2020 09:31 AM

Driving fewer miles may be a ‘new normal' for the US economy

Bill Wood
Plastics News Economics Editor
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Magna International Inc,
    Magna International Inc. has now reopened production in nearly all of its global regions, including its Toledo, Ohio, plant.

    Personally speaking, one of the silver linings that has emerged in the past few weeks is a rising appreciation of nontraditional market indicators. This started with the daily deluge of statistics pertaining to COVID-19. Now that the economy is starting to reopen, the business media has started to report on a widening variety of indicators.

    At the start of the recovery from the recession a decade ago, these early indicators were called "green shoots." This time the catchphrase is "new normal." Annoying catchphrases notwithstanding, getting a different perspective on how this intricate economy functions by exploring unusual trends is an opportunity to learn something new and useful.

    For instance, I recently heard that after a precipitous drop in the number of truckloads of commercial rubbish hauled nationwide in April, there was a strong rebound in May. These numbers nicely correspond with the record-breaking recovery that has occurred in the widely followed U.S. stock markets. So, with both stocks and commercial rubbish haulers experiencing a strong, V-shaped recovery, can the rest of the economy be far behind?

    I am convinced the worst is now behind us, but it was obvious quite early that the market for plastic automotive parts was hit hard. In keeping with this spirit of nontraditional indicators, I am using two graphs for my analysis and forecast of how I think an early-phase recovery in the automotive industry will unfold this year. Along with a chart of the well-publicized data on light vehicle sales, I am including a graph derived from the monthly data measuring vehicle miles traveled in the United States.

    Unless you are a tire manufacturer, a gasoline refiner or an auto insurance actuary, you probably paid little attention in the past to the data on vehicle miles traveled. You know that traffic gets increasingly worse every year, but you never bothered to quantify it. But then we shut down the economy and roads became eerily deserted.

    If this situation were to persist for an extended period, it would ultimately have a significant impact on demand for motor vehicles and plastic automotive parts. With the amount of sitting in rush-hour traffic every day, it is easy to assume that demand for motor vehicles in America will always be strong. But now that many of us have had to work from home and shop online for two months, it occurs to me this data series on miles traveled will become more important in the near future.

    Graphic by Amy Steinhauser

    The chart shows the rate of change curve for the seasonally adjusted data for miles traveled each month. This curve indicates that prior to the shutdown of the economy, the total number of miles traveled expanded by an average of just over 1 percent per year during the past decade. There was an annual decline of about 2 percent during the Great Recession in 2008 and then another minor dip in 2011. The data posted steady growth until the economy was shut down in March.

    In April, the number of vehicle miles traveled plummeted more than 40 percent when compared with the same month a year earlier. This was by far the largest one-month decline ever seen in this data. As the graph illustrates, this one-month drop pushed the total for the 12 months ending in April down by 4 percent when compared with the previous 12 months.

    A common theme emerging from many of the U.S. economic data series, including this one, is that the shutdown resulted in the quickest and deepest decline in the data ever recorded. But the good news is that the rebound for many of these series is also coming quick and sharp. The May figures for vehicle miles traveled are not yet available, but I have heard early reports that the total will come in sharply higher than the April total.

    The May total for sales of lightweight vehicles is available, and as you can see on the second chart, it is most encouraging. The annualized sales total was 12.2 million units in May. This is a strong increase over the totals from March and April, though it is still well below the trend from before the pandemic hit. Nevertheless, it is fair to say that this chart is also exhibiting a V-shaped recovery.

    I expect the data for both of these series will continue to rebound during the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the annual totals for 2020 will still register substantial declines when compared with 2019. The rising activity in the second half of this year will not be enough to offset completely all of the damage sustained during the first half. However, the trends in both series are set up for strong percentage growth in 2021.

    While I believe we are heading into a strong recovery in the overall economy, I have questions about whether these series from the automotive industry will get back to their pre-COVID-19 levels next year. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, I am expecting a noticeable "second wave" in the coronavirus statistics later this year. I do not believe this will have a large impact on the overall U.S. economic data. Our health care system is better equipped and well-rehearsed, and I believe it will handle any second wave without much effect on the overall economy.

    But I do think that our recent experience of staying at home, combined with the possibility of another rise in infections this fall, may keep many former commuters in their home offices for good. This may also hold true for many shoppers at retail establishments. And, if not for good, then for much of the time. In other words, the total number of trips to the workplace or out to shop will stay significantly lower than before.

    We may be at the beginning of a new secular trend in the consumptive behavior of Americans. This trend could lower the total number of miles traveled, which will likely have a dampening effect on demand for light vehicles and also new and replacement automotive parts over the long term. It is still too early for me to state definitively this trend has actually started, but it is a potential, nontraditional behavior I will look for in the coming months and years.

    Letter
    to the
    Editor

    Do you have an opinion about this story? Do you have some thoughts you'd like to share with our readers? Plastics News would love to hear from you. Email your letter to Editor at [email protected]

    Get our newsletters

    Staying current is easy with Plastics News delivered straight to your inbox, free of charge.

    Subscribe today

    Subscribe to Plastics News

    Subscribe now
    Connect with Us
    • LinkedIn
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram

    Plastics News covers the business of the global plastics industry. We report news, gather data and deliver timely information that provides our readers with a competitive advantage.

    logo-pn-color
    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI 48207-2997

    Customer Service:
    877-320-1723

    Resources
    • About
    • Staff
    • Editorial Calendar
    • Media Kit
    • Data Store
    • Digital Edition
    • Custom Content
    • People
    • Contact
    • Careers
    • Sitemap
    Related Crain Publications
    • Sustainable Plastics
    • Rubber & Plastics News
    • Urethanes Technology
    • Plastics News China
    • European Rubber Journal
    • Tire Business
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • News
      • Processor News
        • Injection Molding
        • Blow Molding
        • Film & Sheet
        • Pipe/Profile/Tubing
        • Rotomolding
        • Thermoforming
        • Recycling
      • Suppliers
        • Machinery
        • Materials
        • Molds/Tooling
        • Product news
        • Design
      • More News
        • What Keeps You Up At Night
        • Mergers & Acquisitions
        • Sustainability
        • Public Policy
        • Material Insights Videos
        • Numbers that Matter
        • Polymer Points Live
      • End Markets
        • Automotive
        • Packaging
        • Medical
        • Consumer Products
        • Construction
      • FYI Charts
        • Current FYI
      • LSR World
      • Multimedia
        • Videos
        • Galleries
        • Podcasts
      • NPE2021
      • K Show
      • Special Reports
        • CEO Issue
        • Best Places to Work
        • Processor of the Year
        • Rising Stars
        • Women Breaking the Mold
    • Opinion
      • The Plastics Blog
      • Kickstart
      • Heavy Metal
      • One Good Resin
      • BRICS and Plastics
      • All Things Data
      • Viewpoint
      • Perspective
      • Mailbag
    • Shop Floor
      • Blending
      • Compounding
      • Drying
      • Injection Molding
      • Purging
      • Robotics
      • Size Reduction
      • Structural Foam
      • Tooling
      • Training
    • Events
      • Plastics News Events
        • Plastics News Executive Forum
        • Plastics in Automotive
        • Plastics News Caps & Closures
        • Plastics in Healthcare
        • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum
      • Industry Events
      • Livestreams/Webinars
      • Ask the Expert
      • Polymer Points Live
      • Reifenhäuser Technologies Livestreams
      • 2020 Caps & Closures Library
      • Plastics in Healthcare Library
      • Women Breaking the Mold Networking Forum Library
    • Resin Prices
      • All Resins
      • Commodity TPs
        • Historic Commodity Thermoplastics
      • High Temp TPs
        • Historic High Temp Thermoplastics
      • ETPs
        • Historic Engineering Thermoplastics
      • Thermosets
        • Historic Thermosets
      • Recycled Plastics
        • Historic Recycled Plastics
    • Rankings
      • Injection Molders
      • Blow Molders
      • Film Sheet
      • Thermoformers
      • Pipe Profile Tubing
      • Rotomolders
      • Mold/Toolmakers
      • LSR Processors
      • Recyclers
      • Compounders - List
      • Association - List
      • Plastic Lumber - List
      • All
    • Data Store
    • Directory
    • More+
      • Classifieds
        • Place an Ad
        • Sign up for Early Classified
      • Digital Edition
      • Newsletters
      • Sponsored Content
        • ENGEL Sponsored Content
      • White Papers
      • Processor of the Year submissions