At the start of 2025, standard thermoplastics prices in Europe saw very limited movement following stable ethylene and propylene prices. The overall demand picture remained lackluster, due to ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical uncertainties, while supply remained more than adequate, despite the production cutbacks.
In January, polyethylene and polypropylene prices were mostly rolled over in line with the unchanged monomer contracts. However, low density PE prices increased by €10 per metric ton and high density PE blow molding prices fell by €10 per tonne. Base PVC and PVC compound prices were unchanged due to stable ethylene and additives costs. PET prices increased by €10 per tonne on reduced pressure from imports and higher costs. Polystyrene prices increased by only slightly more than the €36 per tonne rise for the styrene monomer reference price.
Standard thermoplastics prices increased across the board in early February following a steep rise in the cost of feedstock. LDPE prices increased at a much higher rate than the €52.5 per tonne rise for the ethylene reference price during the first two weeks of February, because of tight supply, LLDPE, where supply is not quite so tight, posted gains of around €60 per tonne. HDPE prices settled with gains just above the €52.5 per tonne rise for the ethylene reference price. PP prices also showed gains just above the €52.5 per tonne rise in the cost of propylene. Polystyrene prices had risen by slightly more than the €45/tonne increase in the styrene monomer reference cost by mid-February. PVC prices had increased by €40-50 per tonne by mid-February, which was well above the proportionate rise of €26.25/tonne in the cost of ethylene as key players implement margin recovery strategies.
Supply adequate
Supply is more than adequate to meet the low level of demand across most product sectors, despite polymer production plants continuing to operate at reduced rates and several planned and unplanned plant outages. Material availability for LLDPE, HDPE, PS and PET is normal, but at a low level, while for LDPE, PP and base PVC, supply is tighter.
A summary of selected supply-related developments is shown below:
- Sibur-Kstovo, a Sibur subsidiary in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia, suspended operation on Jan. 29 as a drone attack on the Kstovo cracker plant, caused a fire to break out.
- One of the crackers of Dow Inc. at Terneuzen, Netherlands, is being temporarily shut down mid-2025 and will only be reopened when market conditions are more favorable.
- Unipetrol RPA announced Ja. 30 that its PE/PP plant in the Czech Republic is to be shut down for maintenance.
- Borealis declared force majeure at Swedish HDPE facilities and its cross-linked polyethylene grades (PEX) produced at the site on Ja. 14 and resumed operations on Ja. 24.
- Borealis declared force majeure for HDPE/LLDPE at the Porvoo swing plant in Finland and subsequently resumed production on Ja. 28.
- A fire erupted at the LyondellBasell cracker and polyolefins plant in Berre L’Etang, France on Jan. 20.
- TotalEnergies reportedly declared another force majeure on polypropylene deliveries from the plant in Gonfreville, France on Jan. 16.
- Shell Chemicals shuts down operations at the PP/PE plant in the Netherlands on Jan. 14.
Demand weak
Polymer demand remained well below what would normally be expected in January and February. Warehouses at most converters are well stocked in view of the low demand across most end use sectors and converters are buying just sufficient material to cover their immediate production needs. Converters started to replenish stocks in January but as prices have increased this month, stock-building has diminished. The packaging sector is ordering at a solid level, but volumes for the construction and automotive sectors remain weak.
March outlook
At time of writing (mid-February) crude oil and naphtha prices were falling driven by optimism that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, encouraged by President Donald Trump, could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports. Meanwhile, concerns over Trump’s threat of imposing new reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners added to market anxiety, potentially reducing economic growth and oil demand.
L/LDPE
LDPE prices increased slightly while LLDPE prices were mostly stable at the start of the New Year following a rollover for the January ethylene reference price. The small uptick for LDPE prices reflected higher import prices for US material as the US dollar strengthened against the Euro. LDPE supply was tighter than for LLDPE supply largely because of good availability of LLDPE imports. Demand remained well below normal although there were tentative signs that processors were beginning to rebuild stocks.
LDPE prices increased at a much higher rate than the €52.5/tonne rise for the ethylene reference price during the first two weeks of February because of tight supply, LLDPE, where supply is not quite so tight, posted gains of around €60/tonne. It remains to be seen whether these price hikes in excess of the monomer rise will hold by the end of the month. Converters are ordering only sufficient to meet their immediate needs and supply is adequate.
HDPE
HDPE prices were mostly unchanged during the first two weeks of the New Year because of weak demand and a rollover for the January ethylene reference price. Demand was slow to pick up after the holidays but sellers were hopeful that processors would soon start to replenish their stocks. Material availability was adequate, despite production cutbacks, as local output was supplemented by imported material.
Some HDPE producers called for triple-digit price increases at the beginning of February, but by mid-month, price were settling with an increase just above the €52.5/tonne rise for the ethylene reference price. Price increases could well drift back towards the monomer cost rise over the rest of the month. Supply is supported by imports and demand remains weak as converters buy only enough to meet their immediate production needs.
PP
PP prices moved sideways last months following a rollover for the propylene reference price. One major player asked for a sizeable price rise, which failed to achieve market acceptance. Demand was simply too low to support a hefty price hike as key markets, including the automotive and construction sectors, remained in the doldrums. Supply was more than adequate, despite production cutbacks.
PP producers wanted significant price hikes at the beginning of February, but by mid-month, PP prices were showing gains slightly above the €52.5/tonne rise in the cost of propylene. Material availability was tight but supply was more than sufficient to meet demand. Buying interest was fairly muted with only the packaging sector ordering anything close to normal volumes. Price increases could well drift back towards the monomer cost rise over the remainder of the month given the weak demand.
PS
In January, PS producers approached the market with calls for a price increase of €50-55/tonne following a rise of €36/tonne for the styrene monomer reference price over the previous month. PS prices responded to the cost rise with gains of €35-40/tonne. There was plenty of material available despite production cutbacks. Converters started to rebuild stocks in January with some converters also pre-buying in anticipation of higher PS prices to come.
At the start of February, PS producers announced planned price increase of €60-70/tonne following an increase of €45/tonne for the styrene monomer reference price. GPPS prices had risen by slightly more than the monomer cost rise by mid-month; the premium for high-impact modified grades compared with GPPS mostly remained at €80-100/tonne after the cost of butadiene also rose by €45/tonne in February. Supply was more than adequate while demand weakened as the restocking activities in the previous month largely fizzled out.
PVC
PVC prices were mostly stable last month because of weak demand and an unchanged January ethylene reference price. Demand remained in the doldrums as a result of a weak building and construction sector, seasonal effects and a slow return to work by converters after the holidays. There was more than enough material to go around despite production cutbacks and plant maintenance turnarounds.
At the beginning of February, some PVC sellers called for price increases of €70/tonne, which was far in excess of the proportionate rise of €26.25/tonne in the cost of ethylene. However, by mid-month, most contracts were settling with increases of around €40/tonne. Demand remained well below what would normally be expected while material availability was more than enough to satisfy the low order intake.
PET
The European PET market begins the New Year in a more balanced position, albeit at a much lower level. Prices were up slightly in January because of reduced pressure from lower-cost imports and higher costs: the December paraxylene contract settled €5/tonne higher with the January paraxylene settlement also expected to rise. Demand remained very weak, although a few converters began to replenish stocks in anticipation of higher prices ahead.
PET prices were showing some upward momentum at the beginning of February with gains of €40-50/tonne. While the demand picture remained gloomy, European PET prices are edging higher driven delays in delivery of imported PET, which are discouraging overseas purchases, and higher feedstock costs. European buyers are showing a preference for domestic sources because of concerns over delayed shipments from Asia. The January paraxylene contract price settled up by €65/tonne with the February monoethylene glycol contract price up by €40/tonne.
See the latest pricing charts here.