Freedonia Group recently issued U.S. market forecasts on vinyl windows and doors, siding, insulation fencing and single-ply roofing. The reports all look ahead through 2023.
Cleveland-based Freedonia expects demand for vinyl windows and doors — including solid vinyl and wood-plastic composite — to increase 5.2 percent per year, to hit $7.7 billion in 2023. That's the most rapid growth rate of any material type, Freedonia said.
Most sales come from residential windows and doors, especially replacement applications, accounting for 88 percent of demand in 2018. Builders and owners of commercial buildings have relied more heavily on metal products.
Freedonia said vinyl enjoyed rapid penetration of the residential market during the 2013-18 period, mainly displacing wood windows. Vinyl windows and doors also benefited from tax credits for energy-efficient products from 2009-16.
Demand for wood-plastic composite windows should grow 6 percent a year, to reach $135 million in 2023.
Turning to siding, Freedonia said vinyl will continue to have the largest market share and solid demand, supported by its relatively low cost and the large housing stock that already uses vinyl, which encourages replacement demand. Also, changes in building codes are allowing the use of vinyl products, the firm said. Vinyl siding is forecast to increase 1.7 percent a year through 2023, to 27.9 million squares valued at $1.7 billion.
However, Freedonia said vinyl's share of the siding market will continue to decline because of strong competition from wood-look siding of materials such as fiber cement, engineered wood and metal. But improvements in the quality of vinyl siding will slow the market-share loss.
From Freedonia's insulation study, foamed plastic insulation will show strong demand growth through 2023, fueled by rising single-family construction and stringent building codes that require insulation to make buildings more energy efficient. But fiberglass will remain the leading insulation material by volume, thanks to consumer familiarity and a large do-it-yourself market for attic insulation.
Demand for foamed plastic insulation should grow 2.4 percent a year through 2023, reaching 2.5 billion pounds, valued at $5.8 billion. Foamed plastic insulation will continue to gain market share, especially in the commercial buildings sector, which accounts for the largest share of demand for the material.
The Freedonia study looks at several types of foamed plastic insulation, including rigid polyurethane and polyisocyanurate board, spray PUR, extruded polystyrene, expanded PS and other foamed materials such as phenolic, elastomeric, polyolefin and melamine.
Moving on to fencing, Freedonia said the fastest gains in demand will be high-value materials, including plastics and ornamental metal. Metal accounts for the largest share of fencing in commercial, nonbuilding and agricultural markets. Wood makes up the majority of residential fending, but it faces growing competition from more durable alternatives that look like wood.
For single-ply roofing, plastic membranes are used almost exclusively in commercial construction, through PVC and thermoplastic polyolefin membranes.
Among all plastic single-ply roofing products, TPO membranes account for the largest share of demand and will see the most rapid gains moving ahead, accounting for 64 percent of plastic single-ply roofing demand in 2023, according to Freedonia.
Demand for plastic single-ply roofing is projected to rise 3.2 percent per year, to $1.3 billion.