Future recycling legislation in limbo as vote count continues

With the results of the presidential and congressional elections still unknown as of Nov. 4, the political impact for the plastics industry remains in the same limbo.

The uncertainty over control of Washington means that the future direction of plastics recycling and waste legislation — the issue that industry lobbyists focused most on in 2020 — also remains cloudy.

Industry executives are watching most closely to see if Democrat Joe Biden wins the presidency and his party takes the Senate, arguing that would give a major boost to legislation they oppose, the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, or lead to other significant restrictions on industry.

A recent analysis from research firm BloombergNEF predicted big differences between Biden and Donald Trump presidencies over plastics recycling tied to that bill.

BloombergNEF suggested a Biden administration would be sympathetic to the goals of the Break Free legislation and if enacted it would push the plastics recycling rate from under 10 percent currently to 41 percent by 2050.

It contrasted that with a second term for President Trump, predicting it would largely maintain the status quo when it came to federal government policies. As a result the plastics recycling rate would only rise to 25 percent by 2050.

"We expect a Biden administration would sympathize with the objectives of the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, which would accelerate plastic recycling in the near term," BloombergNEF said. "We assume a second Trump term would mean business as usual with plastic recycling efforts spearheaded by states and corporations."

BloombergNEF said the Trump administration "has shown no willingness to engage with Congress on circular economy legislation," leading to a scenario where growth in plastics recycling "does not accelerate until 2040 when chemical recycling technologies become widespread."

The Break Free bill attracted interest from influential Democrats in the Senate. California Senator and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris was a co-sponsor.

The author of that bill in the Senate, Tom Udall, D-N.M, did not seek reelection, but several other Democratic senators who co-sponsored it, including Oregon's Jeff Merkley, won reelection.

The main Republican author of another piece of plastics waste legislation, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, faced a stronger-than-expected challenge for reelection, but reporting in the Anchorage Daily News said he had a wide margin in early voting.

He is a lead sponsor of the industry-based Save Our Seas legislation.

As well, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., won reelection. At a Senate hearing in July, he used his position as chair of a key appropriations subcommittee to urge his Senate colleagues to create a government fund to clean up ocean plastic waste, comparing it to previous U.S. efforts to fight AIDS or malaria around the world.

Outside of waste issues, two former plastics executives comfortably won reelection to their seats in Congress.

Republican Warren Davidson, a former mold making industry executive, won his race in Ohio's 8th Congressional District with nearly 70 percent of the vote over his Democratic opponent, Vanessa Enoch.

And former Charter NEX Films Inc. executive Bryan Steil, won with a little over 60 percent of the vote in Wisconsin's 1st District over Democrat Roger Polack.

The race for a third plastics executive was too close to call. Lisa Scheller, president and chairperson of Silberline Manufacturing Co., a maker of pigments for plastics and other industries, was running to unseat incumbent Democrat Lisa Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District.

Industry lobbyists and environmental groups will also be monitoring state legislative elections.

Democratic gains in control of state legislative chambers in the 2018 elections led to more interest in plastics-related environmental legislation. One analysis said that set the stage for this year's increase in federal proposals.

A pre-election analysis by the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators said that the momentum in state chambers in 2019 for plastics-related legislation — more than 200 bills to reduce single-use plastics in 34 states — "resulted in Sen. Tom Udall and Rep. Alan Lowenthal introducing the federal Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act in 2020."