Auto suppliers employ about 270,000 people in Germany. This could fall to 200,000 by 2030, said Frank Schwope, lecturer in automotive economics at the Hanover University of Applied Sciences.
The dire news regarding job cuts across the auto supply sector has been growing in recent weeks, with Robert Bosch, Continental and ZF Friedrichshafen announcing or considering large-scale layoffs.
"The approximately 310,000 employees in 2018 and 2019 are a thing of the past," Schwope told Automobilwoche, a sibling publication of Automotive News and Plastics News.
Schwope expects further declines.
"The number of employees in Germany is likely to fall further due to the transformation to e-mobility," he said.
French supplier Forvia, a maker of auto interiors with global operations including the United States and Germany, also announced it will cut 10,000 jobs in Europe by 2028.
Continental is axing 7,150 jobs in its automotive division worldwide.
At least 3,200 jobs are likely to be lost at Bosch, most of them in Germany in the combustion engine, automated driving and control units.
ZF, which is highly indebted, could cut up to 12,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, according to the supplier's labor representatives.
Suppliers will continue to have a harder time than automakers in the coming years, especially as the industry trend toward insourcing accelerates among automakers.
"Even if new jobs are created in areas such as battery development or battery production, these will not be able to compensate for the loss of other jobs," Schwope said.
For Manuel Kallweit, chief economist at the German Association of the Automotive Industry, the cuts are not unexpected in view of the transformation gripping the automotive industry.
"I would even have imagined them to be a little more pronounced in this upheaval," he said. "That shows companies want to keep jobs here in Germany."
In addition to supplying European auto production, German suppliers are critical for production across North America.
Kallweit said the job cuts announced by the suppliers would be handled in a responsible manner and employees would be offered other positions.
"Those affected will not become unemployed to the extent that jobs are cut," he said. "There is still a shortage of skilled workers, which will not get any smaller in the coming years."