Biggest midterm election impact for plastics: A green wave in states

Washington — For the plastics industry, the biggest impact of the Nov. 8 midterm elections is probably in the states, where unexpected and history-defying gains by Democrats could strengthen calls for new plastics environmental laws.

It's a sharp contrast from Washington, where a closely divided Congress after the midterms makes big change harder.

But the states are on a different and potentially more active path, with Democrats expanding their control, something that rarely happens in midterms for the party in the White House.

"The map [in the states] has expanded for potentially significant plastics policy," said Matt Seaholm, president and CEO of the Plastics Industry Association.

He pointed to Democrats achieving the "trifecta" of controlling both legislative chambers and the governor's office in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota. In Michigan, it's the first time Democrats have been in that position in 40 years.

While abortion, inflation and democracy may have motivated voters, observers say the Democratic gains could mean more extended producer responsibility laws for packaging.

In the last 18 months, four states — California, Colorado, Maine and Oregon — passed the first U.S. EPR laws for packaging, and many other states have flirted with it.

Scott Cassel, CEO of the Product Stewardship Institute, which advocates for EPR laws, said the election will mean more packaging EPR in states, including for plastics.

"Based upon the results from the elections … I would say it looks very good," he said, noting Maryland, Massachusetts and Minnesota, in particular, have been active on EPR.

EPR supporters in Maryland have a stronger hand with Democrat Wes Moore winning the election as governor, replacing outgoing Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, he said.

The Maryland Legislature, which was already controlled by Democrats, had considered an EPR bill this year and has worked to build industry support, he said.

"I think there's a very good possibility that Maryland will see their law pass," Cassel said. "A number of producer organizations — the Flexible Packaging Association, Ameripen and the Consumer Brands Association — all supported Maryland's bill."

EPR laws in general require industry to operate or provide much more financial support for consumer packaging recycling. While common in some European countries and Canadian provinces, such laws were nonexistent in the United States for consumer product packaging until Maine and Oregon passed the first U.S. versions last year.

"EPR the past two years has been a tidal wave," he said.

Several election analysts said Democrats bucked predictions of a red Republican wave and historic trends that the president's party loses seats in a midterm.

A Pew Charitable Trusts election review said Democrats did "unexpectedly well" in state elections.

Governing magazine said Democrats "defied history" by holding their own or picking up seats in states, the first time a sitting president's party has done that in 20 years — since the unusual 2002 midterms after the Sept. 11 attacks — and one of only a handful of times it's happened in the last 120 years.

The magazine noted that Republicans still have trifecta control of more than 20 states, compared with now 18 Democratic trifectas, although those numbers could still change, depending on late results.

It's more that the Democrats are catching up to previous Republican gains, but Seaholm said the Democratic success in states means there will be "pent-up demand to move forward policies that haven't moved in recent years."

There's no sign that plastics or EPR policy played a major role in elections, although EPR did figure in campaign ads in one state race: for governor in Maine.

A Maine Republican Party television ad that got a lot of airplay criticized the EPR law signed by Democratic Gov. Janet Mills in 2021, calling it a tax on groceries. But Mills, who easily defeated Republican Paul LePage, called the commercial misleading and said the EPR program would not increase grocery prices and is still several years away from being implemented.

States are getting more interested in EPR as a way to offset the rising cost of recycling programs, Cassel said, noting that New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Washington and New Jersey, among others, are looking seriously at it.

"What has driven EPR is the significant cost increase that local governments are paying in their waste bills," he said. "Right now the burden is on state and local governments and taxpayers. What we're looking to do is more fully share the responsibility with the producers."

EPR laws, which in general require companies to operate or financially support consumer packaging recycling programs, sometimes have bipartisan support. But the four states they've passed in thus far all have had Democratic governors and Democrat-leaning legislatures.

Heidi Sanborn, executive director of the EPR advocacy group the National Stewardship Action Council, said she was "feeling very hopeful" election results will lead to more EPR and plastics legislation, including recyclability labeling measures in Maryland.

"I do think Maryland is poised to be more aggressive," she said. "Michigan is lining up the same way."

Worsening economics for recycling will also push states toward EPR, she said.

"Especially now that the markets have dropped out again, there will be more pressure to shift these costs," she said.

The election could also impact the plastics industry's push for state chemical recycling legislation.

Democrats in Michigan's Legislature, for example, last year resisted legislation from the plastics industry to make it easier to build chemical recycling plants, and presumably that Democratic position is now strengthened.

Chemical recycling also proved controversial in Rhode Island, where Democrats have had a trifecta in government.

Such legislation has been a major political priority for the American Chemistry Council since 2017, with 20 states adopting that legal framework. ACC calls the technology advanced recycling and said laws making it easier to build such plants will help handle hard-to-recycle grades of plastic.

Chemical recycling regulation is an issue that at times, although not always, breaks on partisan lines.

Green groups and some Democratic lawmakers in states and Congress have opposed the industry push, which would change laws to regulate the facilities as manufacturing plants rather than solid waste operations.

Baca, however, said advanced recycling has bipartisan support and he noted some Democratic governors have signed the legislation. He said state elections may have little impact on the push to expand advanced recycling legislation and said it's up to industry to build support.

"In regards to the Michigan advanced recycling bill, I don't think it lessens one way or the other," he said. "What we have is an obligation and a challenge in any state that we are operating in, to help educate lawmakers about what advanced recycling is and isn't, because it is a relatively new domestic manufacturing opportunity."

At the national level, plastics groups said the impact of the election was murkier, with a narrowly divided Congress either leading to gridlock or forcing more bipartisan compromise.

Baca said he saw at least one silver lining: If Republicans win control of the House — even narrowly — it could mean that the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act and companion language in the House Democrats' Clean Future climate bill will be dead.

"I view the shift in the House as meaning that some of the extreme policies put forth like Break Free and Clean Future are close to, if not dead, in the next Congress," Baca said. "We should celebrate that as an industry because that's going to protect American jobs and domestic manufacturing."

Baca said he saw opportunities in the election results for the industry to push a pro-domestic manufacturing agenda.

"I think the main takeaway that impacts our industry is there was a significant number of voters who expressed concerns about the direction of the economy, inflation, manufacturing and jobs," Baca said. "There is a huge opportunity to continue to expand domestic manufacturing for our industry here in the United States, making sure that we have good-paying jobs and that we're operating with the highest environmental standards, because that's where I think people are right now."

Seaholm said he saw opportunities for the industry to make modest progress on some industry priorities, even in a divided Congress.

"Realistically what could get done are some small things, some small policy riders, everything from encouragement of advanced recycling to some standardization of labeling," Seaholm said. "They aren't necessarily the most exciting items but could be very helpful as we try to increase recycling rates and have a little more certainty."

He also said it will be hard to pass major legislation before the 2024 elections.

"I don't anticipate much getting through Congress in the next two years, period," Seaholm said. "For anything to pass next year, it's going to require some type of bipartisanship. From my point of view, that's a good thing."

Baca said ACC sees two federal opportunities around plastics: It wants to find House and Senate sponsors for its five-point national legislative package and it hopes Congress sends a signal to global plastics treaty negotiators.

ACC's legislative plan for Washington includes mandatory 30 percent recycled content in plastic products by 2030, support for advanced recycling and an "American-designed" EPR plan.

"I still strongly believe that we will advance our federal five actions proposal; that is a top priority for us," Baca said. "We continue to have productive and robust dialogue with a ton of members of Congress and senators."

Baca also said there's an opportunity for Congress to send a message to negotiators at upcoming global plastics treaty talks.

The first round of talks starts in Uruguay at the end of December and will include a delegation of at least 20 industry representatives, including Baca and a team from ACC.

"We have this global plastics treaty that's looming over us," Baca said. "I think there's a huge opportunity for Congress to send a message to the world that we are going to be the hub of circularity and innovation and support things like advanced recycling" and other measures. Those measures include looking at the life cycle impact of products and "investing in the necessary infrastructure through public-private partnerships so that we can actually collect and sort more materials," Baca said.

A coalition of environmental groups said in a Nov. 9 news conference that it saw a significant number of voters casting ballots around climate issues.

"I think it's fair to say that looking at yesterday's elections, there was a green wave in the states across the country, a big green wave," said Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters, pointing to Democratic gains in states.

He said LCV and other groups organized a "historic" $135 million turnout effort targeting climate voters in the midterms.

"In the vast majority of cases, climate champions won," he said.

Karpinski and others said climate issues were very different politically in 2022 than the last time it was a major issue in a federal election, in 2010. Then, Democrats got beat up over climate legislation, but this time voters were much more receptive, they said.

Both ACC and the Plastics Industry Association took a different tack. They said they saw opportunities to keep making the case that plastics are crucial to fighting climate change, because they're needed to build electric cars, insulate homes, reduce food waste and build green power infrastructure.

"If the priorities are climate, one thing that I feel strongly is part of our job is to show the value of plastic as it relates to conservation," Seaholm said. "Using plastic in electric vehicles is the only way that they work."

"We view ourselves as a critical piece to helping achieve many of the carbon and climate commitments that have been made," Baca said. "If you want to address climate change, our industry needs to have a seat at the table."

But NSAC's Sanborn said she sees rising voter concern over the use of fossil fuels to make plastics.

"People are finally starting to get that plastics is oil and oil is plastics; they are just starting to make that connection clearly," she said. "By the 2024 election, people will make that connection clearly. They are very concerned about climate and we're just starting to make the connection to them that all those plastic tchotchkes they buy are made of oil."