Construction spending in the U.S. for 2019 wasn't terrible, but I can't help but think we should be doing better. Interest rates are at historically low levels, and construction rates are barely higher than the rate of inflation.

My current outlook calls for resin prices to come in flat to down through the first few months of this year, and then climb gradually higher in the second half.

The growth rate for total consumer spending has stayed close to the 4 percent line for the past 10 years. From a historical perspective, this pattern is unusual.

My outlook for the North American plastics industry in 2020 is mixed. For the industry as a whole, my production forecast calls for a gain of 1 percent.

Consumers are the driving force in the U.S. economy, so this week I am analyzing the three major indicators of U.S. consumer behavior.

Despite all the talk of uncertainty, the overall message I get from the macroeconomic data is one of stability.

Will the strength of the consumer sector be enough to provide a soft landing for the industrial sector? Or will the decline in business investment gain momentum and ultimately pull the consumer sector down with it. To put it more succinctly, will we have an overall economic recession next year or not?

Consumers are fully employed with rising incomes. They also have relatively low levels of household debt, which has been accrued at low interest rates. And most importantly, they account for over two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity.

The demand for molds can be extremely volatile, but even moderate swings in the overall totals can represent huge hardships for some shops.

It is stating the obvious to say the U.S. plastics industry changed substantially in the past 30 years. But if we want to manage, or even benefit, from future changes, it is necessary to glean an understanding of the lessons from the past.

The base-case outlook for the film and sheet segments of the plastics industry in the coming months is mixed. But a forecast of "mostly flat" is not too bad considering we have been trending mostly higher for the past 10 years.

"I am not arguing with the confidence data; I am trying to interpret it. Historical analysis shows that confidence surveys are not always accurate predictors of the future. But that does not mean they should be ignored."

"I am not sure what sparked such a vigorous interest in recessions this month, but I am increasingly concerned that we might just be talking our way into one."

The always-challenging task of analyzing and forecasting the business cycle has been more difficult than usual in recent years.

Housing starts are being suppressed by supply constraints rather than waning demand for new houses. The problem continues to be a tight labor market for residential construction workers.