Numbers that Matter

U.S. employment data — including recent revisions — point to a soft landing for the U.S. economy, according to PN Economics Editor Bill Wood.

From an economist's perspective, this has been a summer packed with surprises so far. Most of these surprises were unpleasant, and all of them could eventually have a substantial impact on the U.S. economy.

The stock market is sharply declining, the unemployment rate is rising, and the Federal Reserve remains inactive, prompting concerns about a potential recession. Despite the troubling signs, Plastics News Economics Editor Bill Wood argues that the current data does not yet indicate an imminent recession, instead favoring the idea of a market correction.

Bill Wood: "The stock market was indeed beginning to look a bit irrational as we started the second half of 2024, but history has taught me the stock market tends to correct itself regardless of my opinion. Nevertheless, there are some other trends or risks in the overall economy that have me concerned at the present time because they do not appear to be self-correcting."

Poor housing start data and high federal budget deficits are two of the data sets that have PN Economics Editor Bill Wood concerned about the outlook for the rest of 2024.

The Fed is still trying to get inflation under control, and interest rates may remain high for the next year. In the June Numbers that Matter editorial livestream, Bill Wood talked about the impact that’s having on plastics end markets. 

In 2021, the American business sector did something it had never done before: It invested more money in intellectual property products than it did in equipment.

Bill Wood: "Americans have significantly increased the amount of money they are spending on services, and one category of the services sector that is experiencing the strongest growth is health care. Not surprisingly, this increased spending on health care has raised demand for medical supplies."